The day after reporting horrific subscriber losses, Netflix’s stock has again been punished, dropping 35% and being downgraded by several analysts. One went so far as to call the Netflix business model “unsustainable.”
James Montgomery Scott analyst Tony Wible was among those who downgraded Netflix’s stock, and he is not optimistic on the company right now:
“The new baseline of sub metrics is troubling, management credibility has crumbled, international adoption is weak (as we suspected), content costs are mounting and it is clearer that the DVD business accounts for the vast majority of profits,” he wrote. “Management has failed to rebuild faith in the stock, which is still expensive and mispriced by value standards . . . We believe the Netflix model is unsustainable, as the company faces rising costs that it hoped it could pass onto its subs, which appear unwilling to do so.”
“Looks like the nuclear winter scenario is playing out for Netflix,” he wrote. “Subscriber base expansion in the U.S. appears to be minimal and losses from international launches are weighing on profitability. We think third-quarter results combined with fourth-quarter guidance and comments on 2012 put to rest the bull case on Netflix as we know it.”
Susquehanna Financial analyst Vasily Karasyov also downgraded Netflix’s stock, and added some harsh word of his own:
“Looks like the nuclear winter scenario is playing out for Netflix . . . Subscriber base expansion in the U.S. appears to be minimal and losses from international launches are weighing on profitability. We think third-quarter results combined with fourth-quarter guidance and comments on 2012 put to rest the bull case on Netflix as we know it . . . Netflix stock may be transitioning from the momentum stock category into the broken story basket.”
Are analysts overreacting to Netflix’s rough times over the last few months, or has the sun permanently set on the former industry darling?
(via The Hollywood Reporter)
I suspect the selection of analyses. Losing subscribers while increasing revenue is at worst a mixed result. I should have bought some shares today.
Wasn’t market cap overvalued to begin with?
Analysts and the investment community tend to over react. Netflix’s stock probably hasn’t hit bottom…yet.
Basically, Netflix’s stock will start to reflect more traditional valuation as its business model contracts to a point of stasis.
And there’s an article in the WSJ that says they are not doomed. Everyone has an opinion.
I, myself, hope Netflix stays around. I like the streaming. Don`t care much for the DVD rentals. One thing that might help is to fire the CEO and other top management and make a fresh start.
They should have taken the Comcast approach. Raised the price slowly over time and the customers would have taken it much better.
Can you please write on different types of International Insurance article as well? nice post.